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07/26/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers begin what could be a make-or-break week-long road trip for the American League Central contenders tonight at Tropicana Field, where the struggling and injury-plagued club takes on the Tampa Bay Rays in a clash of postseason hopefuls.
Detroit enters the opener of this four-game series just two games behind first-place Chicago in the AL Central standings, but hasn't performed like a playoff-worthy team lately. The Tigers have lost nine of their last 12 contests and dropped all four bouts of their only road set during that span, which came against last-place Cleveland from July 16-18.
Winning away from home has been a challenge for Detroit all year long. The Tigers are a poor 16-29 on the road this season and haven't taken a series as the visitor since registering a two-game sweep at Oakland from May 19-20.
The Tigers also starts up this important trip, which also includes a stop at Boston's Fenway Park, at nothing close to full strength. Detroit has lost three lineup regulars -- third baseman Brandon Inge (broken hand), right fielder Magglio Ordonez (fractured right ankle) and second baseman Carlos Guillen (calf strain) to injuries over the past week.
Detroit will be coming in with a bit of momentum, however, after putting forth a strong rally to deliver a much-needed 6-5 win over Toronto in yesterday's finale of a doubleheader. The Blue Jays prevailed in the opener by a 5-3 count.
Toronto appeared headed for a sweep of the twinbill after carrying a 4-2 lead into the bottom of the eighth, but the Tigers responded with four runs to move ahead. MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera brought Detroit within a run by smacking a two-RBI double with one out, and Ryan Raburn put the team ahead two batters later with a two-run double off his own off Jays reliever Jason Frasor.
Raburn finished with three RBI in the nightcap, while Cabrera went 2-for-4 to raise his season average to .350. Reliever Phil Coke (6-1) garnered the win by throwing a scoreless top of the eighth, with All-Star closer Jose Valverde notching his 21st save despite allowing a solo homer to Dewayne Wise in the ninth.
Valverde also struggled in the first game, serving up a two-run homer to Lyle Overbay in the top of the ninth that snapped a 3-3 deadlock.
Tampa Bay will embark upon a season-high 11-game homestand this evening and returns to Tropicana Field off back-to-back wins over Cleveland over the weekend. The Rays took Sunday's rubber match of the three-game series by a 4-2 score, with Reid Brignac belting a three-run homer to support a strong outing from starting pitcher Wade Davis.
Brignac's second-inning blast off Justin Masterson gave Tampa a 3-1 advantage, and Davis overcame a shaky beginning to make the lead stand. The rookie righty was touched for a run in each of the first two frames, but held the Indians scoreless over the remainder of his 6 1/3-inning stint to move to 8-9 on the season.
"The first two innings was an uphill battle," Davis said. "Couldn't really find anything to go to throughout the whole game, but we played some great defense today and won the game."
Sunday's victory kept the Rays within three games of the first-place New York Yankees in the AL East standings. Following this series, Tampa Bay will host the defending world champions in a three-game set.
Matt Garza will attempt to follow up Davis' sharp showing, as well as rebound from a horrible last start, when he takes the mound for the Rays tonight. The usually-reliable right-hander was torched for seven runs in 6 1/3 innings of a road loss to Baltimore last Tuesday, giving up four homers and 10 hits overall in a forgettable performance.
Heading back to Tropicana Field could get Garza back on track, as he's registered three wins and a no-decision in his last four starts there and sports a 5-2 record in 10 overall games (nine starts) at home this year.
Garza does not have a track record of success against the Tigers, however. In six lifetime encounters with Detroit, the 26-year-old is 0-4 with a 5.85 earned run average.
The Rays figure to face a stern test tonight from Detroit starter Max Scherzer, who's been terrific since being recalled from a brief banishment to the minors in late May. In 10 starts following his return to the big leagues, the young right-hander has compiled a 6-3 record and an outstanding 2.54 ERA in addition to racking up 74 strikeouts over a span of 63 2/3 innings.
Scherzer was on top of his game once again this past Wednesday, yielding just four hits and fanning five over seven shutout frames to defeat AL West leader Texas. It's the fifth time in his last six starts the former Arizona Diamondbacks first-round selection has given up one run or less.
The University of Missouri product, who turns 26 on Tuesday, is just 1-5 with a 5.61 ERA in nine road starts this season, however. This will be Scherzer's first-ever start against the Rays.
Detroit has lost its last six contests on the road, but did sweep a three-game set from the Rays at Tropicana Field last September. The Tigers won five of the seven overall meetings between the clubs in 2009.
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third straight winn
ChiSox seeking to get back on track at Mariners' expense >>
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Chicago seeks a fifth consec
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While it is unknown when Haren can contribut
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
Elite 8 NCAA Tournament Betting at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com
In what should be an outstanding Saturday of March Madness betting action, the top four teams in the South and West Regions square off in what should be extremely close match-ups. Three of the four teams are coming off extremely close games on Thursday evening, only UCLA won semi comfortably over Pitt 64-55.
Ohio State is coming off their second game in a row where in all reality they should have lost. Of course that doesn’t matter now since the name of the game is “survive and advance” but as the tournament continues, they can’t afford to keep getting down to their opponents early. Kansas also avoided a scare by holding off a scrappy Southern Illinois squad. In the third thrilling game of the evening Memphis pulled off the minor upset (+3.5) despite being the higher seed to Texas A&M.
Although the spreads are fairly small for Saturday’s games, MySportsbook.com continue to bet against the underdogs. Despite OSU’s two scares, 86% of the “betting public” feels the Buckeyes (-1.5) have what it takes to make the Final Four. In fact, so much of the early money is on OSU that the line has already moved from -1 to -1.5. In the second game of the doubleheader, Kansas and their high-powered offense are 2 point favorites as they take on UCLA and their effective defense. About 63% of the early money thus far is once again backing the favorites. If those percentages stay that high, don’t be surprised if this line moves as well. If you like Kansas (-2) you might want to jump on it early.
Memphis vs. Ohio State
Both squads were involved in thrillers on Thursday evening and should come out fired up. OSU can ill afford to get behind early like they did versus their previous two opponents (Xavier, Tennessee). Greg Oden needs to stay out of foul trouble; the Buckeyes are a completely different team when he is on the court. Memphis definitely has the athleticism and length to match-up with OSU. Of Memphis’ five leading minute earners, the shortest of the bunch is 6’5”. Each team has a very effective defense; Memphis surrenders 62.3 PPG whereas the Buckeyes give up only 61 PPG. With those type of numbers, it isn’t surprising that Memphis covered the UNDER almost 69% of the time this season. As a favorite, OSU has covered the UNDER almost 66% of the time over the last three seasons. The major concern for Memphis which is magnifies this time of the year is their brutal foul shooting (62%). This season, OSU is 17-11 ATS versus teams with a winning record and 7-2 ATS in all tournament games. Memphis has been an extremely reliable cover in tournament play in recent years with a 23-8 ATS record over the last three seasons.
UCLA vs. Kansas
In the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader, UCLA will play in a role which they are very unfamiliar with that of the underdog. Only twice this season have they been getting points from the handicappers and both times they covered. Over the last three seasons UCLA is a reliable 23-7 ATS in this unfamiliar role. UCLA has not fared well against Big 12 opponents recently going 1-7 ATS since 1997. Giving up only 59.6 PPG, UCLA will definitely look to do what they do best: keep this game as low scoring as possible. Their defense has been especially tough during the tournament. UCLA opponents have been able to muster up only 48.7 PPG while shooting a combined 34.5% from the field. UCLA definitely has a challenge at hand with a Kansas team that is capable of putting points on the board in bunches. As a team, they average 79 PPG and shoot an impressive 49.6% from the field and 39.4% from beyond the arc. During the tournament Kansas has been “lights out” from the field having shot 56.2%.
With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action. Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”. By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.
To bet on March Madness games this online sportsbook accepts credit cards
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